BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,106.50
NYRA can be an easy target sometimes, which is why my criticisms tend to be more muted than some voices you may see or hear elsewhere. However, I need to point out that today’s feature, the Curlin Stakes, does more harm than good to the Saratoga schedule (at least, as it’s presently constructed).
In its current place on the calendar, the Curlin takes away possible contenders from both Monmouth’s Haskell Invitational and Saratoga’s Jim Dandy. Unmatched Wisdom, Timeout, and Corporate Power wouldn’t be out of place in those races, and would, in fact, offer a stronger betting product with more betting interests.
If the Curlin has to be run, schedule it for Travers Day as an alternative to the Midsummer Derby. I’d rather that race target horses that would be longshots in the Travers, as opposed to contenders in that race’s primary preps.
THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Off-track, I had a fabulous day exploring Wyoming and Fort Collins, Colorado, with my fiancee. On-track, my stand against The Big Torpedo blew up in my face. I dropped $22.
FRIDAY’S PLAY: I gave out an $8 50-cent early Pick Five ticket on this week’s edition of “Drank’n Champagne,” and I’ll use it here, too. That ticket, which starts in the opener, goes as follows: 1 with 8 with 1 with 1,4,6,8 with 1,6,7,8. In addition, I’ll play a $10 cold Pick Three in the opener using all of my singles. For more on how I structured my ticket, check out the video below!
TOTAL WAGERED: $18.
Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!
SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Governor Sam, Race 1
Longshot: Joker On Fire, Race 6
R1
Governor Sam
Test Score
No Evidence
#1 GOVERNOR SAM (8/5): Debuted in an ambitious spot, when he pressed a hot pace and finished sixth in the Royal Palm at Gulfstream. That race offers a fees-paid spot in a race at Royal Ascot, which hints they’ve had high hopes for this $275,000 auction buy; #7 TEST SCORE (8-1): Boasts outstanding turf bloodlines on the bottom side of his pedigree and may be worth an underneath look at a price. There’s a chance he needs a race or wants more ground, but the workouts look sharp and he seems well-meant; #8 NO EVIDENCE (5/2): Hammered for $325,000 in April and is by Vekoma, whose offspring have been winning at a staggering rate this season. Joel Rosario rides for Christophe Clement, and this is another that has every right to be a runner.
R2
Dea Matrona
Wings Like Eagles
Alette d’Oro
#8 DEA MATRONA (3-1): Was 9-1 in the Grade 1 Natalma two starts ago and now runs for a $50,000 claiming tag. I think she had every right to need her 2024 debut at Monmouth, though, and that there’s reason to believe she’ll be sharper against a much weaker bunch; #4 WINGS LIKE EAGLES (7/2): Hasn’t won in more than a year, but has been running against allowance foes and runs for a tag for the first time here. She’s been sitting back and making one run in most of her races, but she’s also shown speed at times in her career, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she’s up closer to the pace here; #5 ALETTE D’ORO (12-1): Earned the diploma last time out at Aqueduct and tries winners in a race that doesn’t seem very salty. Frankie Dettori’s presence is interesting, and she may still have room to improve compared to some of her opponents.
R3
Unmatched Wisdom
Corporate Power
Timeout
#1 UNMATCHED WISDOM (4/5): Has yet to be challenged in two tries and looms large in the Curlin. He passed a two-turn test with flying colors last month at Aqueduct, and anything close to what we’ve seen from him to date would make him a real handful; #2 CORPORATE POWER (7/2): Exits a win in the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard and figures to be doing his best running late. His sheet also includes a win over Batten Down, who won the Grade 3 Ohio Derby not long ago; #4 TIMEOUT (2-1): Graduated out of the maiden ranks going long at Aqueduct and earned a stylish 95 Beyer Speed Figure. That day’s runner-up, though, didn’t flatter him when he ran back last weekend, and I’m unsure whether or not this one can replicate that type of effort in a much tougher spot.
R4
Commandperformance
Rocco Strong
Yono
#8 COMMANDPERFORMANCE (3-1): Gets a tepid top pick on a significant class drop. His record looks far better if you toss his Oaklawn Park races, which seem a cut below the rest of his efforts. If he channels his back class, he’s got a big shot; #4 ROCCO STRONG (7/2): Was a good second last time out behind a horse that sat a picture-perfect trip and never came back to the field. Rudy Rodriguez claimed him that day, and he’s had plenty of success wheeling horses back quickly; #6 YONO (6-1): Ships in from Kentucky and moves way up if there’s any moisture at all in the track. He’s 3-for-3 over off going, and his fast-track form isn’t too shabby, either.
R5
Our Finest Hour
Schwartz entry
Positive Carry
#8 OUR FINEST HOUR (6-1): Drops in for a tag and flashed a bit of talent earlier this year in Florida. She probably never had a chance sitting behind a slow pace last time out, and the combination of blinkers and Luis Saez means she might be up closer here; #1 NOT GUILTY (9/2): Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She’s by Blame and out of a Tale of the Cat mare, and it helps that trainer Cherie DeVaux has gotten off to a flying start at this stand; #3 POSITIVE CARRY (8/5): Is probably going to be a heavy favorite given the connections and the class drop, but I have my doubts. She’s burned a lot of money over her last several tries, and while it wouldn’t stun me if she won, I think there’s a chance she’s turned into a pack animal. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.
R6
Joker On Fire
Saratoga Warrior
Chasing Colton
#5 JOKER ON FIRE (6-1): Debuts for Bruce Levine, whose first-time starters have been on a hot streak of late. This son of Practical Joke is kin to Grade 3-placed Shadow Dragon, and his second dam, Jostle, was a Grade 1 winner that’s turned into a very productive female influence; #8 SARATOGA WARRIOR (7/2): Is another debuting runner that has a right to be precocious. Her dam was a stakes-placed 2-year-old, and the work tab looks pretty flashy. If there’s a reservation here, it’s that her large ownership group may make her a shorter price than she probably should be; #2 CHASING COLTON (9/2): Chased next-out Sanford winner Mo Plex in his unveiling downstate and has a right to improve at second asking. John Velazquez sees fit to ride back, and his experience edge over most of this field could prove valuable.
R7
Critical Threat
Emerald Forest
Super Chief
#8 CRITICAL THREAT (6-1): Wired a field of $25,000 claimers downstate and runs for half of that tag here. This may be an equally-strong spot (it IS Saratoga, after all), but another step forward in his second start off the claim for a high-percentage barn would make him the one to catch at a bit of a price; #5 EMERALD FOREST (5/2): Takes a big drop first off the claim by Linda Rice and will do his best running late. He’s shown he can pass horses, which is great, but this is an alarming first-off-the-claim drop by a barn known for moving horses up, not down; #10 SUPER CHIEF (7/2): Makes his first start in New York after spending his entire career to date in California. He ran against The Chosen Vron in the Grade 3 San Carlos two starts ago and was second for a $50,000 tag last time out. His best race could win, but like my projected second choice, I’m wondering why he’s here and not in a higher-level spot.
R8
Roswell
Sam’s Treasure
Wailua
#7 ROSWELL (5/2): Was a good second behind a very classy horse last month during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. She earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure in that event, and it sure seems like she’s getting better with experience for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott; #4 SAM’S TREASURE (7/2): Has yet to run a clunker in five career outings and was third in the same race my top pick exits. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, but also doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which could come in handy; #2 WAILUA (6-1): Is 2-for-2 coming into this race, which presents a significant class test. Her last-out score at Churchill Downs was a good one, and she could improve in a race that doubles as her second start off of a four-month freshening.
R9
Audacious (MTO)
Root Cause
Any Port
#10 ROOT CAUSE (5/2): Gets significant class relief after a few starts against stakes company last year. One of those tries was a close second in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial. She’s been working steadily for Chad Brown and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., for her first try off the bench; #2 ANY PORT (10-1): Returns to the turf after being thumped in what turned into a match race downstate. Her Tampa Bay Downs turf form earlier this year was strong, and she could sit a dream trip just off of what figures to be a manageable early pace; #9 EPIC MISS JUSTICE (12-1): Almost certainly needed her 2024 debut, which came off a break of nearly a year. She stretches back out to two turns here, and she overcame a slow early pace to win at this route of ground last summer.
R10
Geopolitics
Heart of the Night
Barefoot Disco
#4 GEOPOLITICS (5/2): Has suffered three tough beats in as many career starts, one of which came in stakes company last time out. She comes back into the maiden ranks in the Friday finale, which means she can run with Lasix (always a powerful equipment change); #3 HEART OF THE NIGHT (4-1): Was a good second at this route last month, and it helps her cause that that day’s winner came right back to top first-level allowance foes over the weekend. Her tactical speed is a plus and should ensure she’s in with a chance; #7 BAREFOOT DISCO (10-1): Hasn’t been seen since her debut almost a year ago. That day, she closed well to finish third for a barn whose first-time starters usually aren’t fully cranked. Flavien Prat doesn’t ride for this outfit much, but he’ll have the mount here, and that may mean this filly is live at a price.
