MLB trade deadline report: Teams trending toward buying, selling and ... sideways? (2024)

The All-Star Game will take place in Arlington, Texas, in a few hours. Once the final out is recorded and the MVP trophy held aloft — with the MLB Draft wrapping up today — it will well and truly be trade season, with just two weeks to go before the July 30 deadline. Let’s look at where some key teams stand, with links to stories from this week about what we’ve heard from the rumor mill.

Trending up toward buying

The Red Sox went 7-3 in their final 10 games before the break, meaning they’ve gone from “inching up the wild-card standings” to a two-game lead for the final AL spot. As Jen McCaffrey tells us here, their pitching was a big reason for their hot start, but — Kutter Crawford’s masterpiece on Saturday notwithstanding — they haven’t beenquite as dominant of late. There are two ways to account for this: acquire another starting pitcher, or go get a right-handed bat to help the offense overcome a problem with left-handed pitching and score more runs.

Here’s my smooth transition from the AL to the NL, because the Rangers and Diamondbacks — who met in last year’s World Series — are in similar boats. Texas’ needs could mostly be met by players returning from the injured list (Josh Jung, Evan Carter, Jacob DeGrom, Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford). Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks could really stand to get a few starting pitchers back from the IL, namely Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery and Merrill Kelly.

But both teams appear to be awakening from their World Series hangover. The Rangers (7-3 in their last 10) took two of three from the Astros in Houston over the weekend. They’re 7 1/2 back in the AL wild-card standings, but there might be a path in the division, where they trail Seattle by five games (with Houston — which needs healthy starting pitchers — in second place, a game behind the Mariners, who need bats). Arizona is 6-4 in their last 10, and only a game behind the Mets for the final NL wild-card spot.

Speaking of the Mets, they’re rolling, and have already picked up one reliever, bringing in Phil Maton from the Rays. More should follow.

In the NL Central, a fun development: The Cubs and Pirates surged a bit going into the break, meaning no team in the division is more than 3 1/2 games out of a playoff position. For the Cubs, it’s not only good because winning is good, but also because selling would be tricky. Outfielder Cody Bellinger’s trade market was always a little cloudy, given his contract complications, but now he has gone and broken a finger, which might take him off the market completely. Ian Happ has a no-trade clause. The Pirates, meanwhile, have options in either direction. If they buy, they could use some help on offense. If they sell, left-handers Martín Pérez and Aroldis Chapman — the latter netted the Royals Cole Ragans at the deadline last year — could make for attractive trade chips.

Trending down toward selling

Weirdly, just four teams in the AL have losing records in their last 10 games: the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians and … White Sox. The White Sox’s downward trend started just before the first pitch was thrown on Opening Day, but the other three currently inhabit playoff positions, and are in no danger of selling over the next two weeks — in fact, here’s a story about 10 players the Yankees could target as acquisitions.

There’s not a whole lot of new loss-driven clarity in the NL, either, with one exception: the Nationals — who held the third wild-card position just a few weeks ago and are now in last place in the Non-Marlins-or-Rockies Division of the NL. The Nationals went from “might be” to “are” on the seller list this week, trading reliever Hunter Harvey to the Royals after setting a high price. The Dodgers and Brewers (both 3-7 in their last 10) are in the same boat as the contending AL teams above: they lead their respective divisions, and will be adding, not subtracting.

Other teams with losing records in their last 10 games: the Rockies and Marlins (of course) and the Padres. That’s the whole list! San Diego is still just a game out of a playoff position, though, so its fate is TBD. As Dennis Lin writes, the Padres might do well to heed the lessons learned in 2021 and target starting pitching, especially as they await the returns of Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish.

Trending sideways (toward chaos?)

How is it possible that there are so few teams with losing records in their last 10 games? Aren’t these things supposed to even out? Well, there are a lot of 5-5 records around the league, folks. Literally 10 teams — one-third of the league! — have gone .500 in their last 10.

For some teams, that recent stretch of mediocrity changes nothing. The Phillies, for example, aren’t going to sit tight just because of a recent lull. As Matt Gelb notes, their search for a right-handed bat is not — as has been rumored of late — limited to a center fielder; they’ve been inquiring on corner outfielders as well.

It does, however, make the crystal ball quite murky for teams like the Reds, Giants, Rays and Royals.

The Royals, with the acquisition of Harvey, seem like they’re pushing some chips toward the center of the table, which makes sense. They haven’t made the postseason since their World Series win in 2015, and they’re currently just a couple games behind the Red Sox for the final AL playoff spot. The Rays, likewise, appear to have a clear path in the opposite direction after shipping Maton to the Mets.

As for the other two …

The Reds and Giants have identical records, at 47-50, three games out in the wild-card race. Both are in fourth place in their respective divisions, with San Francisco sitting nine games behind the Dodgers and the Reds trailing the Brewers by eight games. And to nab that final wild-card berth, they’d currently have to leapfrog Pittsburgh, San Diego, Arizona and New York to get in. But if I had to guess, I don’t think either ends up buying. The Reds could reload for next year as their young core begins to age into their primes, gearing up for an offseason of roster-bolstering.

For the Giants, I’m not sure a full “sell” is forthcoming. Not because I’m optimistic that they’re contenders — they haven’t done much this year to convince me they should go for it — but asGrant Brisbee writes, their roster doesn’t appear to be in a great position to capitalize on a “selling” season right now. Maybe they’ll still make some marginal trades, or perhaps they’ll do the most frustrating thing and simply sit tight where they are.

(Top photo of Dominic Smith celebrating a home run Sunday: Winslow Townson / Getty Images)

Levi Weaver is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Texas Rangers. He spent two seasons covering the Rangers for WFAA (ABC) and has been a contributor to MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Follow Levi on Twitter @ThreeTwoEephus